News

Europe Roundup: British pound falls against dollar on gloomy BoE outlook, European shares dips,Gold falls, Oil prices set to end week at multi-month lows on recession fears-August 5th,2022

Posted at 05 August 2022 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

 •German Jun Industrial Production (MoM)  0.4%,-0.3%forecast,  0.2%previous

•UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 11.8%, 13.0% previous

•French Jun Trade Balance  -13.1B, -12.6B forecast, -13.0B previous

•French Jun Industrial Production (MoM)  1.4%,  -0.2% forecast,0.0% previous

• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5%,0.3% previous

•Italian Jun Industrial Production (MoM)  -2.1%,  -0.2% forecast, -1.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•12:30 Canada Jul Part Time Employment Change  -39.1K previous

• 12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)  0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous

• 12:30 US Jul Private Nonfarm Payrolls 230K forecast,381K previous

• 12:30 US Jul  Nonfarm Payrolls  250K forecast, 372K previous

• 12:30 US Jul   Manufacturing Payrolls 17K forecast, 29K previous

• 12:30 US Jul Government Payrolls  -9.0K previous

• 12:30 Canada Jul Unemployment Rate  5.0% forecast, 4.9% previous

• 12:30 US Jul Unemployment Rate  3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous

• 12:30 US Jul Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.9% forecast, 5.1% previous

• 12:30 US Jul Participation Rate  62.2% previous

• 12:30 Canada  Jul Employment Change 20.0K forecast ,-43.2K previous

• 12:30 US Jul U6 Unemployment Rate  6.7% previous

• 14:00  Canada Jul Ivey PMI n.s.a  57.8 previous

• 14:00  Canada Jul Ivey PMI   60.3 forecast, 62.2 previous

•17:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 605 previous

•17:00 US  U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 767 previous

•19:00 US Consumer Credit 25.00B forecast, 22.35B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events

Fxbeat

EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Friday as Investors awaited the U.S. Labor Department’s employment data for July. Signs that the U.S. job market continues to be robust will likely bolster expectations for more monetary policy tightening from the Federal Reserve and fueling recession worries, potentially lowering yields. Meanwhile, the Fed kept delivering hawkish messages, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying on Thursday that the central bank should raise interest rates to above 4% to bring inflation back to target. German industrial production posted an unexpected but modest increase in June, official data showed on Friday, despite supply chain problems weighing on manufacturing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0252(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0292(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0215(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0190(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the U.S. dollar on Friday, a day after the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates by the most in 27 years in an attempt to smother surging inflation but delivered a stark warning about growth. The BoE lifted its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.75%, its highest since late 2008, but said the economy would slip into recession at the end of 2022 and not emerge until 2024. The pound was last trading down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.21385 after dropping as low as $1.2065 after the BoE’s decision on Thursday. Market attention was now turning to Friday’s U.S. jobs report for hints about the state of the world’s largest economy and its labour market. Economists expect an increase of 250,000 jobs for the month of July, after 372,000 were added in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2168(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2208(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2121(50%fib),a break below could take the pair towards 1.2038(61.8%fib).

 USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors awaited U.S. jobs data that will give another clue to the health of the world’s largest economy. Investors will look to U.S. jobs data to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive pace of rate hikes is starting to cause economic growth to slow. The data is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls had increase by 250,000 jobs last month, after rising by 372,000 in June. Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits had increased last week, suggesting that a weakening in the labour market might already be underway. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9617(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9655(21DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9533(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9465 (61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Friday as traders turned their attention to U.S. jobs data for further clues about the strength of the economy. Investors await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT, which will provide hints of how the U.S. economy is faring. Economists expect an increase of 250,000 jobs for the month of July, after 372,000 were added in June. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was at 105.93, up a fraction having fallen 0.6% overnight. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.99 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 135.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.95 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 132.99 (50%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks were subdued on Friday, as U.S.-China tensions simmered and investors awaited key labor market data from the United States later in the day for clues about the Federal Reserve's tightening path.

At (GMT 11:53 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.09% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 % percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.35%percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold consolidated off a one-month peak ahead of U.S. labour market data on Friday, but safe-haven inflows triggered by tensions over Taiwan and lower U.S. yields kept bullion on course for a third straight weekly gain.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,784.91 per ounce by 1043 GMT, after hitting its highest level since July 5 earlier in the session. Prices were up 1.1% so far this week.U.S. gold futures eased 0.3% to $1,802.30.

Oil prices slipped on Friday and were near their lowest levels since February as concerns over a possible recession and a fall in fuel demand continued to rattle markets.

Brent crude fell 50 cents, or 0.5%, to $93.62 a barrel by 1120 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 66 cents, or 0.8%, at $87.88.


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